Honkai Star Rail players split on Cosmic Lucky Prize event gamble
Risk it all or take the safe route?Honkai: Star Railplayers can’t agree on the best move for the Cosmic Lucky Prize event. It promises huge rewards, but the odds aren’t in their favor.
The Cosmic Lucky Prize Event started on August 17, 2025, and runs until February 26. For the first seven days, players must choose daily between two options. They can take a guaranteed 100Stellar Jadeor enter a lottery for a shot at 500,000 Stellar Jade.
The catch is most gamblers will walk away with only 50 Jade instead. In fact, some are already getting the short stick of the bet.
Across these seven days, 20 players will win the jackpot. Each day, a few lucky winners will claim massive rewards while others get scraps.
HSR Cosmic Lucky Prize Event: To gamble or not to gamble?
Some mathletes argue that gambling is the better choice. They break out the math, talking about “Expected Value” and “probability curves.”
OneRedditorcalculated that gambling has a slightly better long-term payout than taking 100 Jade daily. They claim if you gamble every day, you’ll likely earn more than the safe 700 Jade total.
“Mathematically, you should always gamble,” they wrote. “Even in the worst case, you might end up with more than 700 Jade.” But other gacha gods aren’t convinced.
“EV is great and all, but you’re only rolling the dice seven times,” one player countered. “With so few trials, luck matters more than math.”
Anotherskeptical playerput it bluntly: “If none of you enter, I have a better chance at 500k Jade. Please reconsider.”
Who are the winners of the 500k Stellar Jade?
As of January 30, two players have won 500,000 Stellar Jade. That’s two out of millions.
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While their user names have not been shared, anX userrevealed they were one of the winners and posted a screenshot.
BYE NOT ME HAVING A MENTAL BREAKDOWN THEN LOGGING INTO HSR AND SEEING I WON THE 500K#hsr#honkaistarrail#starrail#hsrtwt#starrailtwt#hoyotwt#hoyoversepic.twitter.com/31PG2EADAo
The event continues, with more winners revealed daily at 9 PM (UTC+8). Will logic prevail, or will chaos reign? Either way, someone’s getting rich – just probably not you.
